I’ve never bought gold before – but I’m buying it now

I’m 46 years old, and I’m about to invest in gold for the first time in my life.

You see, unlike most MoneyWeek writers, I’ve always been a big sceptic when it came to gold.

I’ve struggled to understand why people ascribe so much value to the metal. Apart from jewellery, it has virtually no use. Gold is only valuable because people say it’s valuable.

What’s more, I’m not keen on assets that never pay an income. And don’t get me started on the quasi-religious fervour of gold bugs.

But now I’ve changed my mind. I’m going to make a small investment in bullion. Here’s why…

Why I’ve changed my mind on gold

Before I go any further, I should acknowledge that many investors have made big profits from gold over the last 14 years. At the turn of the millennium, thegold price was just $288 an ounce; in May 2011, it reached above $1,900. So my scepticism on gold caused me to miss out on big gains.

However, it’s not my past mistakes that have made me change my mind. My ‘conversion’ was triggered by an article in the FT last week, entitled Gold analysts most bearish since 2002. 

This article said that gold analysts expect the gold price to average $1,219 per ounce this year, just below the current price of $1,243. Analysts cited a potential rise in the US dollar, and a possible oversupply of gold to support their view.

You might think that this pessimism would keep me away from gold. But the article just brought out my inner contrarian.

You see, the analysts got their predictions very wrong last year (for a change, the more cynical among you might say). They predicted that the average gold price for 2013 would be over $1,700. In reality, the gold price fell 30% over the year, and the average price ended up being $1,411. So red faces all round for the ‘experts’.

And as I thought about it some more, I began to think that the gold price is too low. For starters, the gold price is now roughly at the level that covers the ‘all-in’ cost of production, so it’s hard to see the gold price going much lower than this. And if the price did fall below $1,200, you’d expect to see a fall in gold production, which would then push the price back up.

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