Financial sector stress delivers fresh jolt

Stress in the financial sector triggered by worries over global growth and the impact of negative interest rates drove European share prices to their lowest in 16 months on Monday and sent the cost of insuring bank debt soaring.

Concern over the health of the sector, which has prompted comparisons with the early days of the global financial crisis in 2008, pushed borrowing costs in the euro zone’s most indebted countries higher and sent investors to the relative safety of ultra-low-risk government debt.

The gloomy mood in stock markets looked likely to carry over into U.S. trading hours, with index futures indicating Wall Street would open lower ESc1 1YMc1 SPc1. Some U.S. bank shares traded sharply lower in Frankfurt.

“The fundamental picture is clearly softening,” said Owen Callan, senior analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald. “People are worried about the global economy and particularly now we are beginning to look at the banks.”

“You are seeing more and more people saying: is this 2008 again? Maybe not quite as severe, but do we need to be worrying about the banking sector and risk assets on a bigger level?”

The STOXX Europe 600 banking index .SX7P fell 3.7 percent, underpeforming the broader market , which was down 2.7 percent and the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3, down 2.6 percent.

Shares in Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), Commerzbank (CBKG.DE), Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX), HSBC (HSBA.L) and BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) fell between 3.5 percent and 6.7 percent.

“Concerns are increasing that in a climate of negative interest rates and prolonged dovish monetary policy, banks’ profitability will be squeezed,” Jaisal Pastakia, investment manager at Heartwood Investment Management, said.

“A high level of unprofitable loans on banks’ balance sheets impacts the broader economy by stifling both domestic demand and bank lending growth,” Pastakia added.

The cost of insuring the subordinated debt of European financial firms rose 12 percent on Monday to its highest since April 2013 ITEFS5Y=MG, Markit’s iTraxx index showed.

A similar index for financials’ senior debt ITEFA5Y=MG hit its highest since October 2013. Both indices are up around 40 percent in the past week.

Shares in U.S. banks Citigroup TRCV.F and JPMorgan (JPM.F) trading in Frankfurt were down 3.5 and 3.7 percent respectively, albeit in very low volume.

Worries over the banks pushed up borrowing costs in Portugal, Spain and Italy – three countries that were at the heart of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis.

Yields on Portugal’s 10-year debt PT10YT=TWEB rose 21 basis points to 3.14 percent, their highest since July 2015.

At the same time, German 10-year yields DE10YT=TWEB, the euro zone benchmark, fell more than 6 bps to 0.25 percent and two-year yields DE2YT=TWEB hit a record low of -0.506 percent.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields US10YT=RR fell 5.5 bps to 1.79 percent.

DOLLAR DOWN

This pushed the dollar to its lowest against the safe-haven Japanese yen JPY= for more than two weeks at 116.11 yen, down 0.6 percent on the day.

Speculators slashed bullish bets on the dollar for a sixth straight week through Feb. 2, according to data on Friday from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Weak U.S. economic data recently has led investors to pare back their bets on steady interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve though the latest CFTC figures do not take account of Friday’s U.S. jobs report. It showed a pick-up in wage growth last month and dented the view on the Fed outlook.

Crude oil futures skidded over 2 percent to just over $33 by 5.15 a.m. ET, as a meeting between OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and Venezuela provided little indication that steps would be taken to boost prices. Earlier, oil had gained as much as 1 percent on hopes that an agreement would be reached to curb supply.

Earlier, Asian shares fell, though trade was thin with many markets shut for the Lunar New Year holiday. Chinese markets are shut for the whole week.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS fell 0.4 percent, though Japan’s Nikkei .N225 ended up 1.1 percent

Data over the weekend showed China’s foreign reserves fell for a third straight month in January, as dollars were dumped to defend the yuan and curb capital outflows. The fall was less than forecast but was the second biggest on record.

Beijing has been struggling to underpin the yuan, which faces depreciation pressure as China’s growth rate slows to its lowest levels in a quarter of a century.

(Additional reporting by Atul Prakash and Patrick Graham, Marius Zaharia and John Geddie in London and Hideyuki Sano and Lisa Twaronite in Tokyo, editing by Larry King)

Markets | Mon Feb 8, 2016 8:35am EST
Financial sector stress delivers fresh jolt

LONDON | By Jemima Kelly and Nigel Stephenson