Today top trends forecaster Gerald Celente warned one of the biggest central bank gambles in world history failed as the gold market prepares to skyrocket to $2,000.
Japan Rolls Snake Eyes
Despite expectations that the Bank of Japan would stimulate its nation’s foundering economy by driving interest rates further into negative territory, and that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would fire his third Abenomic stimulus arrow, both missed the target. On the news this week that the BOJ held rates and the stimulus arrow was far smaller than markets anticipated, the Nikkei sunk further in a bearish trend and Asian markets moved lower.
Indeed, central banks are caught in a rate trap. If they raise rates, already slowing economies will further recede while stock markets and housing sectors relying on cheap money will falter.
Should central banks lower rates further, they risk currency depreciation and money outflows.
Moreover, already deeply troubled banks, insurance companies and pension funds that rely on higher interest rates to remain profitable and solvent will become further depressed, putting them at high risk to ignite an equity market panic.
By all quantitative measures, like allotropic drugs that relieve symptoms but do not cure chronic degenerative diseases, central bank money injections relieved the symptoms of the Panic of ’08, but did not cure the money junky disease that caused it.
In Europe, for example, despite negative interest rates and the European Central Bank €80 billion a month government and corporate bond buying scheme, the eurozone Gross Domestic Product barely budged, rising just 0.3 percent the last quarter.
In the US, the sluggish economy further weakened, with second quarter GDP growing at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2 percent according to Commerce Department figures released last Friday. In fact, US economic growth since the end of the recession is tracking at its weakest pace of any expansion since 1949.
Does the Fed lie, or are they really stupid?
With the weight of evidence, from the S&P 500 companies reporting the fourth straight quarter of declining profits, to business investment falling and durable goods orders plummeting 4 percent in June … William Dudley, president of the New York Fed said on Sunday that the US central bank should be cautious before raising rates. “The medium-term risks to the US economic growth outlook are somewhat skewed to the downside,” he noted.
This is the same Dudley who back in May declared that because the US economy was strong he believed “a tightening in the summer, the June-July time frame is a reasonable expectation.”
Trend Forecast:
When Dudley joined the chorus of Fed officials championing interest rate increases last Spring, gold prices quickly sunk to the low $1,200 an ounce range in anticipation of higher rates and a stronger dollar. Now, with gold up over $150 an ounce since then, and trends for low interest rates to persist, we maintain our forecast that when gold breaks strongly above $1,400 per ounce, it will spike toward $2,000.
King World News
August 3, 2016