Why China and Russia are buying so much gold

The good news for gold enthusiasts is that China and Russia, the world’s No. 1 and No. 3 producers, are catching up to the big industrial countries in stocks of bullion in their official reserves.

The bad news is that, on present “steady-as-she goes” monthly gold accruals, it will take China and Russia — No. 6 and 7 in the world ranking of global gold reserves — about six years to draw level with the fourth- and fifth-placed countries, France and Italy.

Beijing and Moscow are building up gold stocks for a variety of reasons, ranging from unease about undue dependence on the dollar — particularly acute in Russia’s case, in view of U.S.-led sanctions over the invasion of Crimea — to distaste at the low or negative returns on Europe currency holdings, especially the euro .

China seems to be following a more strategic campaign to counter the weight of the dollar, embodied by its successful multiyear bid to bring the yuan the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing right. The official unit of account at the heart of world money will be enlarged to include the Chinese currency from Oct. 1, which could possibly be the precursor to the Chinese authorities attempting to strengthen the SDR — currently an artificial unit which is not traded on private markets — as a multilateral reserve currency.

Last year China lifted part of the veil over its gold reserves, breaking a six-year silence to reveal holdings of 1,658 tons as of June 2015 against the previously reported figure of 1,054 tons. Beijing also moved to a market valuation of gold, which according to latest figures are worth $70.5 billion, although this makes up only 2.1% of total Chinese international reserves (against gold reserve shares of 60% to 70% for the main industrial countries).

China’s total official gold holdings are judged to be sizably larger since metal from local mine production is believed to held in a domestic account separate from the international gold holdings attributed to the country’s official reserves.

The world’s biggest official gold holder is the U.S., with 8,134 tons — more than four times as much as China (1,808 tons), more than five times Russia’s 1,499 tons — followed by Germany with 3,380 tons, the IMF itself with 2,814 tons, Italy with 2,452 tons and France with 2,436 tons.

According to the IMF, which logs countries’ monthly gold holdings and reports them with a two-month lag, China bought monthly amounts of around 11 tons in January to April 2016, but kept bullion reserves unchanged in May. If China wishes to mount a genuine long-term challenge to American monetary dominance, it is conceivable that Beijing in coming years could mount a more spectacular action to close the gold gap with the largest holders, ether by taking more Chinese-controlled production into its reserves, or by arranging some form of large-scale gold purchase from international gold holders, private or official.

For the time being, however, the policy of painstaking monthly accruals seems set to continue , allowing Beijing to profit gradually from the rising gold price without spurring any kind of disorderly buying in its wake.

Compared with China, Russia has registered higher average monthly gold reserve purchases between January and June 2016 at 14 tons a month, according to latest IMF figures. But with more than 300 tons less gold in its reserves than China, Russia would still need six years to close the gap with France and Italy.

Underlining China’s rekindled strategic interest in gold, China’s Silk Road Fund, a multibillion dollar asset pool planning Euroasian trade and transport linkages, has been reported as discussing with China National Gold Group a joint bid for the Glencore-owned Vasilkovskoye gold mine in Kazakhstan.

Moreover, China’s state-owned ICBC Standard Bank, ranked the world’s biggest bank by assets, has agreed to buy Barclays’ metals-storage business, including its modern facility in London —signalling China’s interest in becoming not just a trader in gold but a third-party depositary for other official and private holders.

According to statistics compiled by the World Gold Council and other sources, partly using IMF data, total world gold holdings last year increased by 702.5 tons, compared with 176.7 tons in 2014, reaching 32,733 tons in December, their highest level since 2002 when central banks, particularly from developed countries, were engaged in a general sell-off. Much of the increase is due to last year’s statistical upgrading of China gold coverage

The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum’s Global Public Investor 2016 report, published this summer, which includes an in-depth review of gold, says, “Gold has become increasingly attractive as an alternative to reserve currencies, with the euro, yen Swiss franc all weakening against the dollar in 2015, while emerging-market economies have also been keen to diversify away from U.S. assets. Around $10 trillion of sovereign debt is negative yielding as of June 2016, raising challenges for investors and creating risks of market upsets when interest-rate policies change. Deflationary pressures across many advanced and developing economies raise the importance of gold as a store of value and a hedge against financial market instability.”

Market Watch
David Marsh
August 2, 2016