U.S. Recession Chances in Next Two Years Top 60%, JPMorgan Says

The U.S. economy has a greater than 50-50 chance of tipping into a recession in the next two years, according to a model tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The probability of a U.S. recession within one year is almost 28 percent, and rises to more than 60 percent over the next two years, researchers wrote in a note this week. Over the next three years, the odds are higher than 80 percent, according to the note.

JPMorgan’s model includes indicators ranging from consumer and business sentiment to prime-age male labor participation, compensation growth, and durables and structures as a share of gross domestic product. The bank’s gauge is more pessimistic than a recession tracker maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which shows a 14.5 percent chance of a recession a year from now.