Gold to $1,900? MKM Partners says one major tailwind could give a big boost

Gold hit a nearly nine-year high earlier this week, climbing above $1,800 an ounce.

The precious metal is coming off a 13% surge in the second quarter. It has also managed to rally alongside stocks — a divergence from the usual push-and-pull between safe-haven assets and riskier equities.

“Gold and stocks are no longer taking clues from each other,” JC O’Hara, chief market technician at MKM Partners, told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday.

Instead, gold has been taking its cues from a different corner of the markets — real yields, which subtracts inflation from a bond’s yield.

“As real yields continue to move lower, it makes gold more attractive,” said O’Hara. “We plotted gold along with real yields and that’s the spread between the U.S. 10-year yield less the 10-year breakeven rate. … Yields have been negative and declining for the majority of 2020, and we see no end to that trend for the foreseeable future.”

That tailwind could lift gold as high as $1,900, says O’Hara, implying nearly 7% upside. Lower yields and higher bond prices make gold more attractive as a safe-haven asset.

Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global, agrees that gold has more room to run.

“I think we’re going to look back at this high and see it as the beginning of a new trend for gold. One of the biggest elements that drives gold is the direction of yields,” Sanchez said during the same “Trading Nation” segment. “We have dropped a money bomb and a money printing effort, not only on the part of the U.S. government but governments around the world. That is going to lead to a continued stimulative effect that will impact gold for years to come.”

The Federal Reserve injected even more stimulus into money markets at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic to offset economic weakness. Sanchez also says uncertainty surrounding the virus could also increase appetite for gold.

“Until we see a vaccine, volatility works for it,” Sanchez said.

Gold is up 17% this year, while the S&P 500 is down 4%. The U.S. 10-year yield sits at 0.68%.