(Bloomberg) -- To Carmen Reinhart, an Argentine default is all but inevitable -- and will likely come sooner rather than later. The Harvard University economist says the government’s re-profiling plan is already a default on domestic debt, which rating companies will likely promptly respond to. While asking bondholders for more time doesn’t configure a default on its foreign obligations, i... read more

August 28, 2019 James Rickards, who has been warning about fault lines in America’s financial system for more than a decade, is one of the country’s most forward economic thinkers. The prolific writer mixes with big bank board members, CIA spooks, and grubby miners in the Val D’Or Quebec pits. After four major works—including Currency Wars, The Death of Money, The Road to Ruin, an... read more

(Bloomberg) -- For the first time since President Donald Trump was elected, more Americans say the economy is getting worse than getting better. A new Quinnipiac Poll shows 37% saying the economy is declining, compared with 31% who continue to see improvement. Only 30% say the economy is staying about the same, the lowest number on record. Polls have consistently shown the economy to be Trump... read more

The Group of Seven (G-7) summit is set to end without a joint communique for the first time in its 44-year history, after French President Emmanuel Macron decided to abandon the tradition citing “a very deep crisis of democracy.” It will be the first time since meetings began in 1975 that the forum has failed to end a summit without an agreed statement, laying bare the deepening rift bet... read more

The White House is considering a payroll-tax cut to boost the economy by giving Americans a few more dollars in their paychecks — but the proposal could also take money away from Social Security beneficiaries in the future. A temporary payroll-tax cut could be a way to put more money into consumers’ paychecks ahead of the 2020 presidential election, even as concerns about the economy and... read more

(Bloomberg) -- Veteran investor Mark Mobius gave a blanket endorsement to buying gold, saying accumulating bullion will reap long-term rewards as leading central banks loosen monetary policy and the rise of cryptocurrencies serves only to reinforce demand for genuinely hard assets. Prices climbed. “Gold’s long-term prospect is up, up and up, and the reason why I say that is money supply... read more

(Bloomberg) -- Escalating political turmoil in Hong Kong is spooking some gold investors. J. Rotbart & Co., which helps customers buy, store and transport precious metals, says they have seen an increase in demand for gold storage in Singapore from new clients -- even when they’re based in Hong Kong or mainland China. In the last 10 weeks, the breakdown of requests has skewed to around 75% f... read more

China’s shock currency devaluation last week begs the following questions: Is China a rising giant of the twenty-first century poised to overtake the United States in wealth and military prowess? Or is it a house of cards preparing to implode? Conventional wisdom espouses the former. Yet, hard evidence suggests the latter. Your correspondent in the world famous Long Bar on the Bund in... read more

(Bloomberg) -- A familiar bogeyman is lurking alongside the gut-wrenching swings across assets of all stripes: illiquidity. It’s problematic even by the dire standards of August, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Measures of market depth in U.S. equities, Treasuries and currencies relative to the rest of the year have fallen below the average since 2010, the bank’s research shows. It’s a... read more

BERLIN (Reuters) - The economic outlook has deteriorated worldwide as the trade dispute between the United States and China escalates, a survey showed on Monday. Germany’s Ifo economic institute said its quarterly survey among nearly 1,200 experts in more than 110 countries showed that its measures for current conditions and economic expectations have both worsened in the third quarter.... read more